Exhaustion on the Home Front

Owen Matthews looks at the signs of war exhaustion in Russia and Ukraine and wonders if domestic turmoil could determine the outcome before attrition on the battlefield does. On the one hand:

In Russia, there was a rare example of the Kremlin responding to criticism earlier this month when influencer Viktoria Bonya posted an Instagram video addressing Vladimir Putin. “The people are afraid of you, artists are afraid, governors are afraid,” she said. “There is a big wall between you and the people.” It’s been watched more than 24 million times. Bonya is the former star of Russian Big Brother, famous mostly for being famous, and she lives in Monaco with the son of an Irish billionaire. Yet Putin spokesman Dimtri Peskov said her video touched on “very resonant topics.” It’s a sign that Russia’s political managers have noticed a sudden change in mood.

And the other:

The risk of a political crisis, on the other hand, is rising. “Hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainian men have been killed or maimed, families are exhausted, the economy is in ruins, and the next winter can again come with blackouts and empty shelves,” says Mendel, the former [Ukrainian] press secretary. “Many no longer believe the war will end on the terms we were promised two years ago. The status quo is not neutral. It is a slow-motion catastrophe dressed up as moral virtue. I am not asking for surrender. I am asking for honesty … Ukrainians deserve leaders who tell them the truth instead of yesterday’s slogans.”

It seems to me that there may be public and fiscal exhaustion on both sides. And yet, the most obvious political alternatives to the current leadership in Kiev and Moscow may be yet more committed to the war's continuation until final victory.